Have you ever wondered how the Toto site “smart money” got its name? Do you ever wonder what the pros do differently from the amateurs when it comes to football betting?
Even if it means giving up a lot of points to the betting line, Toto site gurus aren’t hesitant to gamble on a large favorite. Take a look at my analysis of the Utah State vs. Nevada game to have a better understanding of this and to learn how to make money using Toto site:
Nevada -29 Utah St.
Although 29 points may appear to be a lot, I don’t believe it is enough for a team like Nevada.
One of the reasons we appear to win a large proportion of our games when we take huge favorites is because when teams are so utterly mismatched like they are in this game between Nevada and Utah State, it’s practically difficult for the oddsmakers to be right when setting their lines. In truth, the oddsmakers’ goal is to establish the line to balance the money on both sides, not to be precise. Most inexperienced gamblers have a psychological aversion to handing out so many points.
Because its human tendency to desire to receive rather than contribute, the lines on “huge line” games are sometimes far lower than they should be. This, in my opinion, is an example of such a game. Nevada is 8-1 against the spread this season, averaging over 32 points per game, while Utah State has surrendered 48 and 63 points in their previous two games. Nevada has also won its previous five ATS games and has run for 230, 236, and 222 yards in its last three games. The basic interpretation is that Utah State will be unable to stop Nevada’s offense from scoring a large number of points.
Utah State can only cover if they score a lot of points, which is unlikely given their #114th scoring offense in the USA. Add in the fact that Utah St. hasn’t only been poor SU, but they’ve also lost five of their last seven ATS games. Nevada is also a formidable opponent at home, having gone 9-1 SU and 9-1 ATS in their previous ten games. Finally, Nevada’s home stadium is turf, not the grass on which Utah State plays. Utah State is 0-10 SU and 3-7 ATS in their past ten games on grass.
Nevada’s speed advantage will be amplified by the grass, leaving Utah St. gasping for oxygen for much of the day. Nevada should be able to go up and down the field and win handily, 48-13.